This is currently done according to the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol (MIOP), which was implemented in 2008 as a replacement for the Woods Modification Guidelines that had been in place since 1989. It is used for burn probability modelling and other fire management applications.īackground: Industrial forestry operations in Ontario, Canada, may be restricted to reduce the risk of wildland fires. We present an overview of a method for the assembly and customization of forecasts that (1) combines short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of different types, (2) calculates Fire Weather Indices and Fire Behaviour Predictions, including modelling seasonal weather station start-up and shutdown, (3) resolves differing spatial resolutions, and (4) communicates forecasts. These forecasts have two limitations: they are not long enough to inform some fire management decisions, and they do not convey any uncertainty to inform risk-based decision-making. Conventional fire weather forecasts have typically been a single scenario for a period of one to five days. Wildland fires in Ontario, Canada can burn and actively spread for days, weeks, or even months, or be naturally limited or extinguished by rain. These decisions are complicated by the large amount of uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the decision, such as weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are needed in fire management to support risk-based decision-making that considers both the probability of an outcome and its potential impact.
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